Tracking the odds that the contestants will win MTV"s dating reality show. Featuring quick recaps for each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and more. Read the Episode 1 post if you want to know how this works.

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9:02: Grief and shell shock. Who died? Several relationships and $500,000 of the prize.9:06: They have to go fishing for dating profile words in the inter nets. One of the most interesting segments in history of the show!9:10: How did they do this? Put the names on top after the couples pair up?9:15: Up for the date are Hayden-Kathryn (8.8%), Joey-Kari (9.6%), and Ozzy-Carolina (9.4%). No great possibilities... a Truth Booth hit would be big, but it"s probably worth giving up the Truth Booth this time around in exchange for the prize.9:16: Some friction as Joey had been paired with Carolina and Ozzy had been paired with Kathryn earlier.9:17: I always find it strange when someone in the house is upset about someone else moving on quickly. Don"t they all enter the house super excited to find out they they"re with a bunch of hot women/men?9:28: Joey managing to sink both his date and Carolina"s date with Ozzy!Truth Booth9:31: Ozzy and Carolina head to the Truth Booth... but Ryan once again offers the house the option to trade.Estimatedvalue of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $2.60Estimatedvalue of going to the truth booth: $2.41Estimatedvalue of losing the truth booth: $2.21It"s worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $102,647Based on my loose math, I think it"s worth making the trade here.9:33: The house declines the trade! For love purposes, it"s probably best not to make the trade even when the money comes close to break-even, because then the couple will sit together at every subsequent Truth Booth.9:36: Are You The One? Fantasy League? Anyone here playing? Sound off in the comments...9:37: No match! 1,808,808 possibilities remain.

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AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
XX10.7%11.7%10.7%12.3%10.8%10.7%10.7%11.7%10.7%
13.6%10.9%10.6%11.6%10.6%X10.7%10.6%10.6%X10.6%
10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%21.2%9.7%8.1%X8.1%8.8%8.1%
11.5%8.8%8.5%X8.5%10.4%X8.5%8.5%26.6%8.5%
X8.6%8.3%9.0%8.4%9.9%21.7%8.4%8.4%9.1%8.3%
10.7%8.4%21.2%8.8%X9.7%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.8%8.1%
10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.7%8.1%21.2%X8.8%8.1%
10.8%21.7%8.1%8.8%8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%X8.1%
10.5%8.1%X23.7%7.9%9.5%7.9%7.9%7.9%8.6%7.9%
10.8%8.4%8.2%X8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%21.4%
10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.7%8.1%8.1%21.2%8.8%X
9:38: Kathryn pretty smug.9:39: And now it"s Joey and Kathryn! He"s all over the place.9:40: Tyranny ready for Osvaldo.9:45: Are Kam and Eddie a #perfectmatch?9:48: Tyler and Kari hooked up. Cue dramatic music!9:53: Taylor devastated about Tyler"s handjob from Kari!9:54: Michael with a surprisingly mature statement about communicating better. Classy!Matchup Ceremony
Kathryn - JoeyTyranny - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 1)Hannah - DerrickCasandra - Jaylan (repeat from episode 1)Kam - Edward (repeat from episode 1)Shannon - TylerCarolina - HaydenGianna - Ozzy (repeat from episode 1)Alicia - MikeTaylor - MichaelKari - AndreBlackout odds: 16.8% (304,145 out of 1,808,808)Instant win possible: No, repeated more than two matchups from episode 1Maximum number of lights: 9Most likely number of lights: 1Lots of repeats from episode 1. Decent strategy for avoiding a blackout, but not that helpful for whittling down possibilities.Wow - 4 beams of light! Big win for the house, which gets down to 80,795 combinations left.AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
XX7.8%9.1%7.6%8.4%8.7%34.1%7.8%7.7%8.9%
8.5%8.2%7.2%37.2%7.1%X8.1%7.9%7.2%X8.6%
7.7%7.2%5.4%7.3%40.3%7.1%7.1%X5.4%5.2%7.3%
7.8%7.1%5.3%X5.1%7.0%X6.5%5.2%49.0%7.1%
X31.8%7.3%8.7%7.1%8.2%5.8%8.2%7.3%7.1%8.5%
7.6%7.0%40.5%7.2%X7.0%6.9%6.5%5.3%5.0%7.0%
34.1%8.2%6.7%8.4%6.5%7.7%8.0%5.8%X6.4%8.2%
8.8%6.2%6.9%8.8%6.7%30.9%8.4%8.0%6.9%X8.4%
8.8%8.4%X6.0%7.1%8.3%8.7%8.2%7.1%7.0%30.2%
8.9%8.7%7.4%X7.2%8.2%31.2%8.2%7.4%7.2%5.7%
7.8%7.2%5.5%7.3%5.4%7.2%7.1%6.7%40.6%5.2%X